Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, AEK Athens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 3 | 1 |
Manchester City goals in rows, AEK Athens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1 | 1.59 | 0.79 | 2.87 |
| AEK Athens | — | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.52 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
