Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 06:45 PM
Union Saint-Gilloise – Real Sociedad
Union Saint-Gilloise
1st · attack 1.52 · defence 0.61
Real Sociedad
8th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Union Saint-Gilloise favourites for Union Saint-Gilloise – Real Sociedad, at 59%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Union Saint-Gilloise win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Real Sociedad win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 10.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.94 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.04 for Real Sociedad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.94 for Union Saint-Gilloise, 1.04 for Real Sociedad.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Union Saint-Gilloise wins; above it, Real Sociedad wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Union Saint-Gilloise goals in rows, Real Sociedad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad?
Union Saint-Gilloise, at 59%. The full split is Union Saint-Gilloise 59%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad 20%.
What is the most likely score in Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad?
1–0, which comes up in 10.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.94 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.04 for Real Sociedad.
Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Union Saint-Gilloise keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.