Europa LeagueWednesday, September 16 · 09:00 PM
Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland
14th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
AZ Alkmaar
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Sunderland favourites for Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar, at 66%. Kick-off September 16, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and AZ Alkmaar win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.00 goals for Sunderland and 0.80 for AZ Alkmaar, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.00 for Sunderland, 0.80 for AZ Alkmaar.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, AZ Alkmaar wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Sunderland goals in rows, AZ Alkmaar goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar?
Sunderland, at 66%. The full split is Sunderland 66%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 14%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar?
1–0, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 2.00 for Sunderland and 0.80 for AZ Alkmaar.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or AZ Alkmaar fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.