Europa LeagueWednesday, September 16 · 09:00 PM
Sturm Graz – Rennes
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.92
Rennes
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Sturm Graz – Rennes, at 54%. Kick-off September 16, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sturm Graz win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Rennes win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.98 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.66 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.98 for Sturm Graz, 1.66 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sturm Graz wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sturm Graz goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sturm Graz v Rennes?
Rennes, at 54%. The full split is Sturm Graz 23%, draw 24%, Rennes 54%.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz v Rennes?
0–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 0.98 for Sturm Graz and 1.66 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz v Rennes?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.