Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 06:45 PM
Salzburg – AC Milan
Salzburg
2nd · attack 1.40 · defence 0.91
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for Salzburg – AC Milan, at 56%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Salzburg win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and AC Milan win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 0.86 goals for Salzburg and 1.65 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.86 for Salzburg, 1.65 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Salzburg wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Salzburg goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Salzburg v AC Milan?
AC Milan, at 56%. The full split is Salzburg 20%, draw 24%, AC Milan 56%.
What is the most likely score in Salzburg v AC Milan?
0–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Salzburg v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 0.86 for Salzburg and 1.65 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in Salzburg v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Salzburg keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.