Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 09:00 PM
Rennes – OFI
Rennes
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
OFI
th · attack 1.05 · defence 0.96
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Rennes – OFI, at 56%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Rennes win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and OFI win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Rennes and 1.01 for OFI, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.77 for Rennes, 1.01 for OFI.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rennes wins; above it, OFI wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Rennes goals in rows, OFI goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rennes v OFI?
Rennes, at 56%. The full split is Rennes 56%, draw 23%, OFI 22%.
What is the most likely score in Rennes v OFI?
1–0, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rennes v OFI?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Rennes and 1.01 for OFI.
Will both teams score in Rennes v OFI?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Rennes keep a clean sheet or OFI fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.