Europa LeagueThursday, September 17 · 09:00 PM
Real Sociedad – AFC Bournemouth
Real Sociedad
8th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.08
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for Real Sociedad – AFC Bournemouth, at 48%. Kick-off September 17, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and AFC Bournemouth win 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.24 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.66 for AFC Bournemouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.24 for Real Sociedad, 1.66 for AFC Bournemouth.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, AFC Bournemouth wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, AFC Bournemouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth, at 48%. The full split is Real Sociedad 29%, draw 23%, AFC Bournemouth 48%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v AFC Bournemouth?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v AFC Bournemouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.24 for Real Sociedad and 1.66 for AFC Bournemouth.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v AFC Bournemouth?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or AFC Bournemouth fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.