Europa LeagueThursday, September 17 · 09:00 PM
Juventus – NEC Nijmegen
Juventus
7th · attack 1.32 · defence 0.82
NEC Nijmegen
11th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Juventus – NEC Nijmegen, at 79%. Kick-off September 17, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Juventus win 79% of the time, the draw comes up 13% and NEC Nijmegen win 8%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.68 goals for Juventus and 0.71 for NEC Nijmegen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.68 for Juventus, 0.71 for NEC Nijmegen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Juventus wins; above it, NEC Nijmegen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 1 |
Juventus goals in rows, NEC Nijmegen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Juventus v NEC Nijmegen?
Juventus, at 79%. The full split is Juventus 79%, draw 13%, NEC Nijmegen 8%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus v NEC Nijmegen?
2–0, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v NEC Nijmegen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.68 for Juventus and 0.71 for NEC Nijmegen.
Will both teams score in Juventus v NEC Nijmegen?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Juventus keep a clean sheet or NEC Nijmegen fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.