Europa LeagueThursday, September 17 · 09:00 PM
Crystal Palace – Lech Poznań
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Lech Poznań
th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.41
Our model makes Crystal Palace favourites for Crystal Palace – Lech Poznań, at 68%. Kick-off September 17, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 68% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Lech Poznań win 15%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.42 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.06 for Lech Poznań, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.42 for Crystal Palace, 1.06 for Lech Poznań.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, Lech Poznań wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, Lech Poznań goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań?
Crystal Palace, at 68%. The full split is Crystal Palace 68%, draw 17%, Lech Poznań 15%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.42 for Crystal Palace and 1.06 for Lech Poznań.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or Lech Poznań fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.