Europa LeagueThursday, September 17 · 09:00 PM
Beşiktaş – Olympique Marseille
Beşiktaş
3rd · attack 1.38 · defence 0.88
Olympique Marseille
17th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Beşiktaş – Olympique Marseille, at 44%. Kick-off September 17, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Beşiktaş win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Olympique Marseille win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.64 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for Beşiktaş, 1.64 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Beşiktaş wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Beşiktaş goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Beşiktaş v Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille, at 44%. The full split is Beşiktaş 33%, draw 23%, Olympique Marseille 44%.
What is the most likely score in Beşiktaş v Olympique Marseille?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Beşiktaş v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for Beşiktaş and 1.64 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.