Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 09:00 PM
Benfica – Celtic
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.96 · defence 0.66
Celtic
th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.30
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Benfica – Celtic, at 76%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Benfica win 76% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Celtic win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.91 goals for Benfica and 1.05 for Celtic, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.91 for Benfica, 1.05 for Celtic.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Benfica wins; above it, Celtic wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Benfica goals in rows, Celtic goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Benfica v Celtic?
Benfica, at 76%. The full split is Benfica 76%, draw 14%, Celtic 11%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica v Celtic?
2–1, which comes up in 8.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica v Celtic?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.91 for Benfica and 1.05 for Celtic.
Will both teams score in Benfica v Celtic?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Benfica keep a clean sheet or Celtic fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.