Europa LeagueWednesday, September 16 · 09:00 PM
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Celje
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.99
Celje
th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.90
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Celje, at 95%. Kick-off September 16, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 95% of the time, the draw comes up 4% and Celje win 2%. The single most likely scoreline is 4–0, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 4.52 goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.63 for Celje, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 89% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 4.52 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 0.63 for Celje.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins; above it, Celje wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | ||||||
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in rows, Celje goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Celje?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 95%. The full split is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 95%, draw 4%, Celje 2%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Celje?
4–0, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Celje?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 89% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 96% of the time. Expected goals are 4.52 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.63 for Celje.
Will both teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Celje?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep a clean sheet or Celje fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.