Europa LeagueWednesday, September 16 · 09:00 PM
Anderlecht – Olympique Lyonnais
Anderlecht
5th · attack 1.19 · defence 0.97
Olympique Lyonnais
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Anderlecht – Olympique Lyonnais, at 48%. Kick-off September 16, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Anderlecht win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Olympique Lyonnais win 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.37 goals for Anderlecht and 1.78 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.37 for Anderlecht, 1.78 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Anderlecht wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Anderlecht goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Anderlecht v Olympique Lyonnais?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 48%. The full split is Anderlecht 30%, draw 22%, Olympique Lyonnais 48%.
What is the most likely score in Anderlecht v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Anderlecht v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.37 for Anderlecht and 1.78 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Anderlecht keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.