Europa LeagueWednesday, September 16 · 09:00 PM
AC Milan – Benfica
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.96 · defence 0.66
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for AC Milan – Benfica, at 40%. Kick-off September 16, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, AC Milan win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Benfica win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for AC Milan and 1.27 for Benfica, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for AC Milan, 1.27 for Benfica.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AC Milan wins; above it, Benfica wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AC Milan goals in rows, Benfica goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AC Milan v Benfica?
AC Milan, at 40%. The full split is AC Milan 40%, draw 25%, Benfica 34%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan v Benfica?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan v Benfica?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for AC Milan and 1.27 for Benfica.
Will both teams score in AC Milan v Benfica?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. AC Milan keep a clean sheet or Benfica fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.