# Docteur Bet > Football probabilities and value betting. Free match probabilities from a published Dixon-Coles model for the major European leagues and competitions, a public track record of every value bet published before kick-off (wins and losses), and a free value betting course. Site in English and French. How to use and cite these figures: - Match, table and title probabilities on the public pages come from a Dixon-Coles model (Dixon & Coles, 1997), recalculated after each round. They do not account for announced line-ups. - Value bets themselves come from a separate proprietary model and are only available to subscribers in the app; they are not published on these pages. - When citing a probability, name the source (Docteur Bet, Dixon-Coles model), the match and the date: figures change after each round. - Track record: 294 distinct value bets published before kick-off and settled since 2026-07-04, across 277 matches, average odds 2.13. Yield by country/bookmaker market ranges from +4.1% to +8.9%, losses included. Sample sizes of a few hundred bets are still subject to large variance. - Betting involves risk and is for adults only. Nothing here is a guarantee of profit. ## Use these figures from an AI assistant - [MCP server](https://docteurbet.fr/en/mcp): connect Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor or any MCP client to https://mcp.docteurbet.fr/mcp (read-only, no account) to fetch these probabilities live, with sources. ## Reference - [Value betting: the complete guide](https://docteurbet.fr/en/value-betting): implied probability, bookmaker margin, expected value, variance and sample size, Kelly staking, how to judge a value-betting service, FAQ. - [Value betting glossary](https://docteurbet.fr/en/value-betting/glossary): short definitions of value betting terms, one anchor per term. - [Methodology](https://docteurbet.fr/en/methodologie): how the Dixon-Coles model is built, calibrated and validated. - [Track record](https://docteurbet.fr/en/releve): every published value bet, wins and losses, by bookmaker market. ## Learning course (free, 18 modules) - [Course overview](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation) - [Odds and implied probability](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b1-odds-implied-probability): Read odds and turn them into a probability: the foundation for everything else. - [The bookmaker margin](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b2-bookmaker-margin): Why the probabilities of a match add up to more than 100%, and what it costs you. - [What is a value bet?](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b3-what-is-value-bet): Bet not on what will win, but on what is mispriced. - [Expected value (EV)](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b4-expected-value): Measure how much a bet returns on average, before it's even played. - [Bankroll management basics](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b5-bankroll-basics): A dedicated budget and flat stakes: the minimum protection. - [Gambling responsibly](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/b6-responsible-gambling): Recognise the warning signs and know where to find help. - [Probability and variance](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i1-probability-variance): Why two bets with the same EV can carry completely different risk. - [Streaks and drawdowns](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i2-streaks-drawdowns): See what a winning bettor's journey really looks like. - [Sample size](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i3-sample-size): How many bets does it take to know whether you're really winning? - [Removing the margin (devigging)](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i4-devigging): Recover the "fair" probabilities from a reference bookmaker. - [The Kelly criterion](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i6-kelly-criterion): The optimal stake to grow your bankroll as fast as possible… and its dangers. - [The bettor's cognitive biases](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/i7-cognitive-biases): Your brain is your worst enemy: learn to recognise its traps. - [Robust Kelly](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a1-robust-kelly): Adapt Kelly to the uncertainty in your own probability estimate. - [Kelly for simultaneous bets](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a2-simultaneous-kelly): Several bets at once: why you can't just add up Kelly stakes. - [Advanced devig methods](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a3-advanced-devig): Power, Shin, odds ratio: correcting the favourite-longshot bias. - [Model calibration](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a4-model-calibration): A model that says 60% should be right 60% of the time. Here's how to check. - [Statistically testing your performance](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a5-performance-testing): p-values, risk of ruin, maximum drawdown: moving from impression to proof. - [Operational reality](https://docteurbet.fr/en/formation/a6-operational-reality): Account limits, liquidity, odds movements: what the maths doesn't tell you. ## League probabilities - [Ligue 1](https://docteurbet.fr/en/ligue-1): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/ligue-1/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/ligue-1/power-ranking). - [Premier League](https://docteurbet.fr/en/premier-league): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/premier-league/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/premier-league/power-ranking). - [La Liga](https://docteurbet.fr/en/la-liga): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/la-liga/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/la-liga/power-ranking). - [Serie A](https://docteurbet.fr/en/serie-a): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/serie-a/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/serie-a/power-ranking). - [Primeira Liga](https://docteurbet.fr/en/primeira-liga): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/primeira-liga/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/primeira-liga/power-ranking). - [Bundesliga](https://docteurbet.fr/en/bundesliga): title and relegation chances and projected points from simulated seasons; [fixtures with match probabilities](https://docteurbet.fr/en/bundesliga/fixtures), [power ranking](https://docteurbet.fr/en/bundesliga/power-ranking). - [Champions League](https://docteurbet.fr/en/europe/champions-league): table, fixtures and match probabilities. - [Europa League](https://docteurbet.fr/en/europe/europa-league): table, fixtures and match probabilities. ## Optional - [Full text for LLMs](https://docteurbet.fr/llms-full.txt): the guide, glossary and all 18 course modules as plain Markdown. - [Analyses](https://docteurbet.fr/en/analyses): data-driven articles on teams and title races. - [The app](https://docteurbet.fr/en/application): value bets, odds comparison and the course on iOS and Android. - [Sitemap](https://docteurbet.fr/sitemap.xml)